Policy Brief Number 2
November 2011
China’s Medium-Term Growth Prospects
Author: Barry Naughton
Written in November 2011, this note considers China’s medium-term prospects, and observes China’s position with regard to its long-run transformation. There are three main ideas of this note: China was at a turning point that would gradually lead it onto a slower growth path; until years before 2011, China had been extraordinarily well positioned to make it smoothly through that turning point; and in November 2011, China was in a much less favorable position to make the transition.
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