As is widely reported by the IMF and others, global trade is growing at a far slower pace since 2012 than at any time in the previous 30 years. This is all the more worrying since economic growth itself has been anemic since the Great Recession and current forecasts are not terribly ebullient. What can we expect and how will domestic forces shape the future of globalization.
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Globalisation and technological change present policymakers with tremendous challenges in sustaining benefits while containing the dislocations and polarisation that are plaguing many countries. This column argues that the answer is not to roll back these forces, but rather to redouble efforts to make globalisation genuinely inclusive.
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The latest spate of banking problems in Italy highlights the rather remarkable truth that governments have enormous difficulties dealing with banking crises. This situation prevails despite decades of experience on what not to do and what works in terms of bailouts.
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Alan Blinder at a recent LEAD Conference at Georgetown University said that the U.S. report card should be marked, “needs improvement,” next to both “growth” and “sharing of income gains.” In what he calls “a horribly muddled debate,” Blinder reminds us that growth is demand-driven in the short run and supply-driven in the long run.
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The plight of the U.S. economy has been variously described as a consequence of prolonged over spending and under saving, poorly conducted monetary policy and abysmal regulation, or increasing entitlements combined with tax avoidance. There is truth in each of these criticisms, and yet, the economic challenges facing the world’s largest economy are eminently solvable.
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